The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!

In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.

Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.

If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.

When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).

As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.

Heads is now an even shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.

The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.

The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 (+150 US), on tails.

At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 for an event where the 'true odds' of success are 1/1.

About The Author

Daniel B. King has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years. He offers advice to a number of high profile sportsbooks:

www.vipsportsgroup.com

www.sbsportsbook.com

www.betonenine.com

www.betongameday.com

- all of which are industry leaders in the sports betting and gambling field.

SportsTrade@arbitrage.ws

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table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.mansfieldnewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article%3FAID%3D/20081015/OPINION03/810150329cid=1258063152ei=IEr2SNHOIYLg6AO7sp2UCQusg=AFQjCNGfH86zYTjp1YZMMyVJYbKDSnq7LQLetter: Wake up, Ohio, and vote for casinos/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fMansfield News Journal,nbsp;OHnbsp;-/font nobr8 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1Finally, approval of the bcasino/b will end the monopoly -- and hypocrisy -- of only quot;state-runquot; bgambling/b. The current governor#39;s enforcers raided many Ohio b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.salemnews.net/page/content.detail/id/505989.html%3Fnav%3D5003cid=1258063152ei=IEr2SNHOIYLg6AO7sp2UCQusg=AFQjCNFFhuaGVlv_jvSnnoveGZYKa_fFJQbCasino/b drive would create a monopoly/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrSalemNews.net/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.10tv.com/live/content/onnnews/stories/2008/10/14/issue_6.html%3Fsid%3D102cid=1258063152ei=IEr2SNHOIYLg6AO7sp2UCQusg=AFQjCNH6te4rGK3ngESpScKhC3X9lrE-OAIssue 6 Stirs Debate/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobr10TV/nobr/font/fontbrfont class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1258063152hl=ennobrall 3 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table
table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.guampdn.com/article/20081016/NEWS01/810160301/1002cid=0ei=IEr2SNHOIYLg6AO7sp2UCQusg=AFQjCNHT2msTedKYKTfy4uJjFgI2FD34VQProp A focuses on workers: Opposition makes case at UOG/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fPacific Daily News,nbsp;GUnbsp;-/font nobr2 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1The initiative, known as The Responsible bGaming/b Act, proposes to license bcasino gambling/b at Guam Greyhound Park in combination with development of a b.../b/font/div/font/td/tr/table
table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/1222091,CST-NWS-casi15.articlecid=1257880082ei=IEr2SNHOIYLg6AO7sp2UCQusg=AFQjCNGdW25I0PTnURgUUAd2Vf3pQXpJXwRacetrack could win bcasino/b license/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fChicago Sun-Times,nbsp;United Statesnbsp;-/font nobr14 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1Emerald bCasino/b Inc. once controlled the bgaming/b license and had begun building a bcasino/b in Rosemont in 2000. But the bGaming/b Board stopped construction and b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.casinocitytimes.com/news/article.cfm%3FcontentID%3D175456cid=1257880082ei=IEr2SNHOIYLg6AO7sp2UCQusg=AFQjCNEM0sdr6UdJwYsnhae6FvOH2svj4gTowns pairing with bcasino/b partners in bid for bgaming/b license/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrCasino City Times/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2008/10/14/news/doc48f54966ecc7b549788676.txtcid=1257880082ei=IEr2SNHOIYLg6AO7sp2UCQusg=AFQjCNFoOP5qomFqTdHYUxsGw5tO0upFzQPotential sites for new bcasino/b in state will be announced Wednesday/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrBloomington Pantagraph/nobr/font/fontbrfont class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1257880082hl=ennobrall 11 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table
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