A Fools Game

I received an email this week with a question (below) which caused me to think about the wisdom of pursuing trading as a career. Regardless of your trading time span, the skills and concerns of active short-term trading are relevant to all market particpipants.

Question: "There are a lot of people who say that day trading is for "fools" and that it is very difficult to make a living from Day Trading. What are your opinions?"

Trading is like most business: it requires commitment and perseverance. It is never easy to make money, but people who have mastered a skill make it appear easy. The really successful pit traders that I have known made trading look very easy, tantalisingly easy; but they all had many years of experience behind them. For every successful trader there has probably been a few hundred who have tried and failed.

I think people fail at any business if they approach it without an appreciation and understanding of what is required for success. The majority of traders fail because they have no such appreciation and they have unrealistic expectations of themselves. Any trader who starts with the expectation of becoming an instant success is setting himself up for failure. No one would decide to become a golf pro and assume that they could just pick up a bag of clubs and start winning tournaments. Yet novice traders do this all the time.

Just to start with the understanding that trading is a skill that is developed over time, through experience, puts a novice trader way ahead of the competition.

There are 2 core skills in trading, first the ability to anticipate the market (read the market) and second, having the discipline to execute your plan. To learn to read the market you may as well use a trading simulator and only start to trade when you have demonstrated to yourself that you can anticipate the market. Discipline, though, has to be developed and tested in the real world. Discipline is really the crux of the matter and it is here that most traders fall down. Their failure is mainly due to the fact that they are not really aware of its importance. Just starting out as a trader with the intention of developing your discipline puts you way ahead of the average trader. If you can trade with discipline (i.e. stick to your own rules and limits) you are 95% there!

So I would say that for the average aspiring trader, trading is a fool's game; but for those of us who approach the business as a business, with a clear understanding of the unique challenges that trading offers, it is a rewarding and fulfilling career.

Malcolm Robinson
LIFFE Pit Trader & Electronic Trader
InstinctiveTrader.com

In The News:


Foreign currency trading is as risky as it gets
Wall Street Journal - Jul 17, 2008
By JENNIFER WATERS The steep drop in the value of the dollar has many individual investors flirting with dipping into foreign currency trading in order to ...

HispanicBusiness.com

Yen Declines as JPMorgan Earnings Fuel Demand for Higher Yields
Bloomberg - Jul 17, 2008
... the problems with the financial sector are still present,'' said John McCarthy, director of currency trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ...
Update on major currencies Malaysia Star
Daily currency analysis - Jul 17 International Business Times
US dollar nears all-time low Sydney Morning Herald
Bloomberg - Bloombergall 671 news articles

CNNMoney.com

IBM profit tops targets, forecast up
guardian.co.uk, UK - Jul 17, 2008
Currency gains added 7 percentage points to the growth rate, IBM said. Analysts, on average, expected profit of $1.82 per share and revenue of $25.92 ...
IBM Strengthed By Global Growth, Services Forbes
IBM 2Q profit jumps 22 percent, beats forecast The Associated Press
IBM Beats Estimates (Update) TheStreet.com
New York Times - Investor's Business Daily (subscription)all 491 news articles

Church lashed on Olint
Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica - Jul 16, 2008
Christians who placed their funds in Olint Corporation Ltd and other foreign currency trading-related investment schemes were naïve and foolish, ...

Wall Street pressured by oil volatility, techs
CNNMoney.com - 10 hours ago
(Full story) Dollar rises: In currency trading, the dollar rose slightly against the euro and yen, as inflation worries in the European Union - especially ...
CNNMoney.com- Blue chips rally, but techs tumble KAPP
CNNMoney.com- Huge rebound for Wall Street KVEW
Stocks rally for 2nd straight day CNNMoney.com
all 32 news articles

From the Wire
AlterNet, CA - 12 hours ago
Citigroup's results were helped by asset sales, lowered expenses, and record revenues in transaction services, interest rate and currency trading and ...

ABC News

Citigroup To Lead The Gains On Wall Street
AHN - 13 hours ago
In currency trading, the yen changed hands at 106.16 yen per US dollar in Asia. In late New York on late Thursday, the Japanese currency was at 105.23 yen ...
Australian market closes lower, led by resources RTT News
all 588 news articles

The Associated Press

Citigroup posts big loss
Independent, UK - 10 hours ago
Citigroup's results were helped by asset sales, moderating expenses, and record revenues in transaction services, interest rate and currency trading, ...
Citigroup, Inc. F2Q08 (Qtr End 6/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript Seeking Alpha
Citigroup plunges 95% amid continued pain in fixed income Financial News
all 458 news articles

Currency Trading Market Conditions Difficult, Can the Euro ...
Daily FX, NY - Jul 14, 2008
Currency trading markets have seen a major pickup in volatility through the past several days of trading, but relatively limited follow-through makes it ...

India's Rupee Has Second Winning Week as Crude Oil Declines
Bloomberg - 15 hours ago
``Oil has fallen quite a bit in recent days and that's helping the rupee,'' said Pradeep Khanna, head of currency trading at HSBC Holdings Plc in Mumbai. ...
Indian rupee climbs to three week peak, oil key Reuters India
all 10 news articles
currency trading - Google News

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