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Discovering Turnaround Candidates

Discovering Turnaround Candidates

There are many types of investment methodology out there. All of them has their own merits. I for one, personally like to invest in turnaround stocks. What is turnaround stocks? They are normally companies that are experiencing problems (hopefully short-term), and a lot of people are not willing to wait for those companies to recover.

I personally like turnaround stocks for two main reasons; First, turnaround stocks have problems in the open. The problem has been disclosed and our task as investor is to figure out how much the company is worth should the problem persists or when the problem goes away. Granted, there might be more problems discovered along the way. But at the very least, some of the problems has come out and the share price generally has dropped because of that.

Secondly, expectation is low for turnaround investment. Share price is already depressed due to known problems. The company does not have to 'beat expectation' every time it reports earning. All it has to do is clear out the problems that causes its stock price to drop on the first place.

How should one find a potential turnaround candidates for their portfolio? The one thing that I found useful is to read the financial news. Companies that are in trouble can be easily spotted in the news. For example, this week brought news from Pier 1 Imports Inc. (PIR) and Doral Financial (DRL). Are these companies in trouble? Sure. Are they turnaround candidates? Possibly.

Another good source would be the list of stocks that are touching 52 week low. Most of these lists would be companies that are experiencing problems and hence has the potential of turning around. For example ATI Technologies Inc. (ATYT) trade closes to its 52 week low of $ 11.20.

What to avoid when sifting through lists of potential turnaround investment? I would avoid company that is getting hammered due to the delay in its financial reporting. No matter how low the share price is, investors do not and should not invest in companies that has some trust issues.

Once we identify our target, we can then do some analysis to determine the fair value of the stock. There are chances that some companies may never recover. So, we have to take that into accounts when doing fair value calculation. Calculating fair value is a whole brand new topic and I won't get into the details here. But obviously, a stock will have a higher fair value if it can recover from current problems than a stock that cannot overcome its current problems.

Hari Wibowo manages a small finance website aiming to help new investors getting started. Curious? You can find his other writings at http://www.noviceinvesting.com

In The News:

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table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd width=80 align=center valign=topfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifa href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php%3Fid%3D14758206cid=1252832063ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNEPAVF8ko7Iv66SIom7re9Sk7ofCAimg src=http://news.google.com/news?imgefp=SBGic4oxq_wJimgurl=im.sify.com/sifycmsimg/jul2008/Finance/14727680_sebi_220.jpg width=80 height=57 alt= border=1brfont size=-2Sify/font/a/font/tdtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/006200810011731.htmcid=1252832063ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNFSOS0-LMILEnb4ZaRpEFjzOR0R3wRBI, Sebi to relax bcurrency trading/b norms/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fHindu,nbsp;Indianbsp;-/font nobrOct 1, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1Mumbai (PTI): The Reserve Bank of India and Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) are in discussions to relax the bcurrency trading/b norms, b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601091%26sid%3DaJQqfYFBEE9Q%26refer%3Dindiacid=1252832063ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNEQD2UMRijIKjN3niv6oUlLipKl0QIndia Working on Relaxing bCurrency Trading/b Rules, Bhave Says/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrBloomberg/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.topnews.in/bse-launches-currency-futures-trading-272932cid=1252832063ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNHYfUL6ujn5OOFAw8bo_7lf_nKvbQBSE Launches bCurrency/b Futures bTrading/b/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrTopNews/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.indiainfoline.com/news/innernews.asp%3FstoryId%3D80612%26lmn%3D1cid=1252832063ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNGKoweXOqe_aGBA92XHpgyYc52D4gRBI, SEBI mull easing bcurrency/b-btrading/b norms/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrIndia Infoline.com/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1 class=pa href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.telegraphindia.com/1081002/jsp/business/story_9917619.jspcid=1252832063ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNFhi5Ivzb7CCPRqNTLU5F4E8u3VnQnobrCalcutta Telegraph/nobr/anbsp;- a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/business/norms-for-currency-futures-likely-to-be-relaxed_100102431.htmlcid=1252832063ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNHaUi5tMEUw9uujyOU3KKZNpKZqywnobrThaindian.com/nobr/a/fontbr/font class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1252832063hl=ennobrall 151 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100600847.htmlcid=1251130543ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNHXCOyGjsSs958w4EP5Zn6McDGyagUS Stocks Sink in Early bTrading/b/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fWashington Post,nbsp;United Statesnbsp;-/font nobrOct 6, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1b.../b including a couple of quarter of negative economic growth,quot; said Marc Chandler, head of bcurrency trading/b at Brown Brothers Harriman amp; Co. b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DzPWl4EAORuccid=1251130543ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNH_MOq_2F4O30YhdIkidPtEtpo8wwVideo: Wachovia Calls Order Blocking Sale #39;invalid#39;/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrAssociatedPress/nobr/fontobject width=448 height=356param name=movie value=http://www.youtube.com/v/zPWl4EAORuc/paramparam name=wmode value=transparent/paramembed src=http://www.youtube.com/v/zPWl4EAORuctype=application/x-shockwave-flashwmode=transparentwidth=448height=356/embed/objectbr/fontfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews%2Barticleid_2685166.htmlcid=1251130543ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNF3cyR2sdcoaen-rznMYw2cX_FC_QCease-Fire Declared on Wachovia/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobristockAnalyst.com (press release)/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://seekingalpha.com/article/98623%3Fsource%3Dwildcardcid=1251130543ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNF4qyoo8BU-HvEqFFR4tXfK74ncVAWall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrSeeking Alpha/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1 class=pa href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601087%26sid%3Da_rG6edy.Ccc%26refer%3Dhomecid=1251130543ei=jzfsSNuENKjs6gPl5Lj7CAusg=AFQjCNEMkdzNt-h56Q-nhWkcj659o38QgQnobrBloomberg/nobr/a/fontbr/font class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1251130543hl=ennobrall 7,784 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table

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