Is The U.S. Dollar About To Reverse Course?

For the first time in several years the U.S. dollar has managed to gain value against the world's other major currencies. During the first three months of 2005, the U.S. dollar is up approximately five percent against both the yen and the euro. The gains for the dollar should be considered significant when considering the United States still faces a growing trade imbalance. So far this year, currency traders have shifted their focus from the United States' large trade and current account shortfalls toward the higher rates of returns being offered on U.S. debt. The recent strength shown in the dollar has somewhat shifted sentiment within the financial markets about the future direction of the currency. A Bloomberg survey released earlier this week shows that the major currency traders expect to see dollar weakness resume later in the year, but the sentiment among dollar bears is much weaker than it was at the start of the year.

The strength shown in the U.S. currency thus far in 2005 should prove to be short-lived. The strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth during the past eighteen months will begin to show signs of moving closer to more normal levels over the next couple months. The signs of a slower economic growth will likely cause a shift in sentiment among currency traders toward the more fundamental problems facing the U.S. economy. The United States trade and current account deficits show no signs of retreating anytime soon. In fact, we expect the coming trade figures to show further deterioration in the balance of trade over the next few months. The major industrialized nations outside of the United States continue to experience anemic economic growth. This continues to place further pressure on the U.S. dollar as the United States consumer continues to buy goods produced in Europe, Japan, and China.

While we expect the dollar to resume its gradual fall against most major currencies, the major wildcard in our forecast is of course China. Recent information coming from China's top decision makers indicates the Chinese are in no hurry to adjust the current value of the Yuan-Dollar relationship. Should any talks of a possible revaluation emerge later in the year, the downward pressure on the U.S. dollar would quicken as currency traders would buy the Japanese yen, and other freely traded Asian currencies, that would likely benefit from a revaluation.

Mike Fitzpatrick writes for http://www.financial-watch.com

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table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0226000020081202cid=0ei=WY81SeqZHqDM8AT0srjoAQusg=AFQjCNGr_Jx-E2EtoIaO6ID6wL0MStPAQgbCurrency/b managers#39; October returns highest since 2003/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fReutersnbsp;-/font nobr2 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1quot;bCurrency trading/b was the best performing sector during the month as the foreign exchange markets were roiled by the worldwide financial crisis,quot; John W. b.../b/font/div/font/td/tr/table
table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/02/markets/stockswatch/%3Fpostversion%3D2008120209cid=1276545908ei=WY81SeqZHqDM8AT0srjoAQusg=AFQjCNHwUPL4sn620aI-GYDd-xsAHsNpMQStocks in bounceback mode/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fCNNMoney.comnbsp;-/font nobr4 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1b.../b to $47.78 a barrel, the lowest since 2005. In bcurrency trading/b, the dollar edged higher against the yen but slipped versus the euro and the British pound./font/div/font/td/tr/table
table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601102%26sid%3Da0umLzcgteDg%26refer%3Dukcid=1276508546ei=WY81SeqZHqDM8AT0srjoAQusg=AFQjCNGDj1hzoGAj9J2H2DsdvDD9gOe5JgUK Pound Falls as Stocks Tumble, Traders Add to Rate-Cut Bets/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fBloombergnbsp;-/font nobr10 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1The British bcurrency/b also weakened versus the euro, yen and Swiss franc as the MSCI World Index lost 1.4 percent the UK’s FTSE 100 Index slid 2 percent. b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601102%26sid%3DaYvngU.gkUIU%26refer%3Dukcid=1276508546ei=WY81SeqZHqDM8AT0srjoAQusg=AFQjCNHER-w9UVC_a8jVzksqsxicb9oh4gUK Pound Plunges, Gilts Rise as Data Add to Signs of Slump/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrBloomberg/nobr/font/fontbrfont class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1276508546hl=ennobrall 92 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table
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table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601085%26sid%3DaMiAm0E0szBE%26refer%3Deuropecid=1276429220ei=WY81SeqZHqDM8AT0srjoAQusg=AFQjCNEUlBQ6oiV6JB13fXj_P0njTajFpgRuble Requires 20% Depreciation to Revive Economy, Troika Says/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fBloombergnbsp;-/font nobr11 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1Russia’s central bank buys and sells foreign bcurrency/b to keep the ruble within a btrading/b band against a basket comprised of 55 percent dollars and the rest b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601085%26sid%3DaI_tmTGei6b8%26refer%3Deuropecid=1276429220ei=WY81SeqZHqDM8AT0srjoAQusg=AFQjCNFZDq2_LXqE0mj3eTjRDcvGu4HVtQRussian Ruble May Weaken 25% Next Year, Goldman Sachs Says/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrBloomberg/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601087%26sid%3DaKG8tPbloFcs%26refer%3Dhomecid=1276429220ei=WY81SeqZHqDM8AT0srjoAQusg=AFQjCNE0i0BywwwpFbRpqo39kq1HD3cNmQRuble Plunge Prompts Doubling of Reserve Spending, Survey Shows/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrBloomberg/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://www.citywebshopper.net/articles/includes/redirect.php?url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601087%26sid%3DaseDeg1dBbX8%26refer%3Dhomecid=1276429220ei=WY81SeqZHqDM8AT0srjoAQusg=AFQjCNFfWm82igu3U-JMuooLjL7cDl6KnQRussian Stocks, Ruble Drop as Production Falls More Than in ’98/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrBloomberg/nobr/font/fontbrfont class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1276429220hl=ennobrall 11 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table
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Below I will describe three basic principles that may come... Read More

Financial Crises, Global Capital Flows and the International Financial Architecture

The recent upheavals in the world financial markets were quelled... Read More

Forex Trading - Advantages and Disadvantages

What is Forex Trading?Forex, or Foreign Exchange, is the simultaneous... Read More

6 Critical Factors For Successful Trading

Success in any profession can be broken down into a... Read More

Stock Market Report: Day Trading or Swing Trading Online? Stock Investing Information

Profitable day traders recognize that momentum trading is among the... Read More

How To Choose Wisely A FOREX Broker

Most traders use a FOREX broker to handle their transactions.... Read More

Forex Trading Can Be Like Day-trading

Forex trading, or foreign currency trading, has become a bit... Read More

How Do Other Countries Devalue Their Currencies?

Countries devalue their currencies only when they have no other... Read More

Online Futures Trading - Advantages and Disadvantages

What Is Online Futures Trading?A futures contract is an agreement... Read More

New Opportunities with Forex Trading

The simplest definition of currency trading is the practice of... Read More

Forex Brokers - Helping to Maximize Your Success

A Forex broker is a broker dealing in foreign exchange,... Read More

Why Hedge Foreign Currency Risk?

International commerce has rapidly increased as the internet has provided... Read More